Fairfax/Oakton Multi-Family Submarket Q1 2019
Vacancies continued their decline this year after a new delivery and a demolition caused significant vacancy expansion a few years ago. The Modera Fairfax Ridge apartments delivered in 2015 and struggled to lease up. This is important, considering another 800 units are under construction in two developments from Combined Properties. The next few quarters should enjoy stability, something of a norm in this submarket, before new supply delivers in 2019 and 2020, potentially disrupting the multifamily market. Developers also face competition from a large home ownership population and affordability concerns. Rent growth was down last quarter, but did enjoy two quarters of strong leasing earlier this year. Investors are still finding opportunities for value-add plays, despite the submarkets small multifamily inventory.
Falls Church/Vienna Multi-Family Submarket Q1 2019
Falls Church/Vienna was a developer favorite early in the cycle. More than 2,000 units delivered in 2012 and 2013 alone. Recent deliveries are near emerging live/work/play centers. Dunn Loring Metro station serves as the focal point of the Mosaic District and Halstead Square. Volatile vacancies fell back below the historical average this year, thanks to no supply and strong absorption. Projects in the pipeline have since subsided, as there were no units under construction at the start of 18Q4.
McLean/Great Falls Multi-Family Submarket Q1 2019
Home to some of the wealthiest and most educated residents in the D.C. metro, the McLean/Great Falls Submarket is a homeowner’s paradise. Incomes top $200,000, and the average house is selling for upwards of $1 million. Apartment vacancies and rents are volatile, as the multifamily inventory is small. Investors and developers target neighboring Tysons Corner and Reston for their density, town centers and job nodes.